A machine in use is replaced by a new machine either when it fails or when it reaches the age of T years. If the lifetimes of successive machines are independent with a common distribution F having density f , show that
(a) the long-run rate at which machines are replaced equals
(b) the long-run rate at which machines in use fail equals
∫0Txf(x)dx+T[1−F(T)]F(T)(a) The number of replaced machines by time t constitutes a renewal process. The time between replacements equals T, if lifetime of new machine is ⩾T;x, if lifetime of new machine is x, x<T. Hence,
E [time between replacements ]=∫0Txf(x)dx+T[1−F(T)]
and the result follows by Proposition 3.1.
(b) The number of machines that have failed in use by time t constitutes a renewal process. The mean time between in-use failures, E[F], can be calculated by conditioning on the lifetime of the initial machine as E[F]= E[E[F ∣ lifetime of initial machine ]]. Now
E[F∣ lifetime of machine is x]={x,T+E[F], if x⩽T if x>T
Hence,
E[F]=0∫Txf(x)dx+(T+E[F])[1−F(T)]
or
E[F]=F(T)∫0Txf(x)dx+T[1−F(T)]
and the result follows from Proposition 3.1.