Question 15.18: Suppose that the assets of a bank consist of $200 million of...

Section 12.10 discusses how statistics can be used to accept or reject a VaR model. Section 15.6 discusses guidelines for bank supervisors in setting the VaR multiplier m_c. It explains that, if the number of exceptions in 250 trials is five or more, then m_c is increased. What is the chance of five or more exceptions if the VaR model is working well?

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The probability of five or more exceptions is 1-BINOMDIST(4,250,0.01, TRUE) or 10.8%. It could be argued that regulators are using a confidence level of about 10% (rather than the more usual 5%) in choosing to reject a VaR model.

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