Question 14.9: The table below gives the history of claims occurring in the...

The table below gives the history of claims occurring in the last three years. All claims are notified no more than three years after happening:

Development year (d) Earned premium
3 2 1
200 160 150 250 2007 Year of claim (c)
200 150 300 2008
200 350 2009

What are the total estimated claims for 2007, 2008 and 2009 under the total loss ratio approach, assuming a total loss ratio of 80%?

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The loss ratio of 80% is consistent with that observed for claims occurring in 2007, being equal to 200/250. The total projected claims for 2008 and 2009 are therefore 80% ×300 = 240 and 80% ×350 = 280 respectively. The claim development can therefore be completed as follows:

Development year (d) Earned premium
3 2 1
200 160 150 250 2007 Year of claim (c)
240 200 150 300 2008
280 200 350 2009

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