Question 5.11: Ukon Ltd is considering two competing projects. Details of e...
Ukon Ltd is considering two competing projects. Details of each project are as follows:
● Project A has a 0.8 probability of producing a negative NPV of £500,000, a 0.1 prob-ability of producing a positive NPV of £1.0 million, and a 0.1 probability of producing a positive NPV of £5.5 million.
● Project B has a 0.2 probability of producing a positive NPV of £125,000, a 0.3 prob-ability of producing a positive NPV of £250,000, and a 0.5 probability of producing a positive NPV of £300,000.
What is the expected net present value (ENPV) of each project?
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The ENPV of Project A is:
Probability | NPV £ |
Expected value £ |
0.8 | (500,000) | (400,000) |
0.1 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 |
0.1 | 5,500,000 | \underline{550,000} |
ENPV \underline{250,000} |
The ENPV of Project B is:
Probability | NPV £ |
Expected value £ |
0.2 | 125,000 | 25,000 |
0.3 | 250,000 | 75,000 |
0.5 | 300,000 | \underline{150,000} |
ENPV \underline{250,000} |
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