It is proposed to build a plant to produce a new product. The estimated investment required is 12.5 million pounds and the timing of the investment will be:
year 1 1.0 million (design costs)
year 2 5.0 million (construction costs)
year 3 5.0 million ” ”
year 4 1.5 million (working capital)
The plant will start up in year 4. The forecast sales price, sales volume, and raw material costs are shown in Table 6.8.
End of year | Forecast sales 10^{3} t | Forecast selling Price £/t | Raw material costs £/t product | Sale income less operating costs 10^{6} £ | Net cash flow 10^{6} £ | Cumulative cash flow 10^{6} £ (Project NFW) | Discounted cash flow at 15 per cent 10^{6} £ | Cumulative DCF (Project NPW) 10^{6} £ | Project NPW at 25 per cent discount rate | Project NPW at 35 per cent discount rate | Project NPW at 37 per cent discount rate |
1 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | -1.0 | -1.00 | -0.87 | -0.87 | -0.80 | -0.74 | 0.73 |
2 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | -5.0 | -6.00 | -3.78 | -4.65 | -4.00 | -3.48 | -3.39 |
3 | 0 | _ | _ | 0 | -5.0 | -11.00 | -3.29 | -7.94 | -6.56 | -5.52 | -5.34 |
4 | 100 | 150 | 90 | 4.6 | 3.10 | -7.90 | 1.77 | -6.17 | -5.29 | -4.58 | -4.46 |
5 | 105 | 150 | 90 | 4.85 | 4.85 | -3.05 | 2.41 | -4.03 | -3.70 | -3.5 | -3.45 |
6 | 110 | 150 | 90 | 5.1 | 5.10 | 2.05 | 2.20 | -1.83 | -2.36 | -2.66 | -2.68 |
7 | 120 | 150 | 90 | 5.6 | 5.60 | 7.65 | 2.11 | 0.28 | -1.19 | -1.97 | -2.06 |
8 | 130 | 150 | 90 | 6.1 | 6.10 | 13.75 | 1.99 | 2.27 | -0.17 | -1.42 | -1.57 |
9 | 140 | 150 | 90 | 6.5 | 6.50 | 20.25 | 1.85 | 4.12 | 0.70 | -0.98 | -1.19 |
10 | 150 | 145 | 85 | 7 | 7.00 | 27.25 | 1.73 | 5.85 | 1.45 | -0.64 | -0.89 |
11 | 165 | 140 | 85 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 34.18 | 1.49 | 7.34 | 2.05 | -0.38 | -0.67 |
12 | 180 | 140 | 85 | 7.6 | 7.60 | 41.78 | 1.42 | 8.76 | 2.57 | -0.17 | -0.50 |
13 | 190 | 140 | 85 | 8.05 | 8.05 | 49.83 | 1.31 | 10.07 | 3.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
14 | 200 | 135 | 85 | 8.05 | 8.05 | 57.88 | 1.14 | 11.21 | 3.36 | 0.11 | -0.27 |
15 | 190 | 130 | 75 | 7.62 | 7.62 | 65.50 | 0.94 | 12.15 | 3.63 | 0.19 | -0.20 |
16 | 180 | 120 | 75 | 7.19 | 7.19 | 72.69 | 0.77 | 12.92 | 3.83 | 0.25 | -0.15 |
17 | 170 | 115 | 70 | 5.06 | 5.06 | 77.75 | 0.47 | 13.39 | 3.95 | 0.28 | -0.13 |
18 | 160 | 110 | 70 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 81.68 | 0.32 | 13.71 | 4.02 | 0.30 | -0.12 |
19 | 150 | 100 | 70 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 83.83 | 0.15 | 13.86 | 4.05 | 0.31 | -0.11 |
The fixed operating costs are estimated to be:
£400,000 per year up to year 9
£500,000 per year from year 9 to 13
£550,000 per year from year 13
The variable operating costs are estimated to be:
£10 per ton of product up to year 13
£13 per ton of product from year 13
Calculate:
1. The net cash flow in each year.
2. The future worth of the project, NFW.
3. The present worth, NPW, at a discount rate of 15 per cent.
4. The discounted cash-flow rate of return, DCFRR.
5. The pay-back time.
No account needs to be taken of tax in this exercise; or the scrap value of the equipment and value of the site at the end of the project life. For the discounting calculation, cash flows can be assumed to occur at the end of the year in which they actually occur.