Question 6.6: It is proposed to build a plant to produce a new product. Th...

It is proposed to build a plant to produce a new product. The estimated investment required is 12.5 million pounds and the timing of the investment will be:

year 1 1.0 million (design costs)

year 2 5.0 million (construction costs)

year 3 5.0 million ” ”

year 4 1.5 million (working capital)

The plant will start up in year 4. The forecast sales price, sales volume, and raw material costs are shown in Table 6.8.

End of year Forecast sales 10^{3} t Forecast selling Price £/t Raw material costs £/t product Sale income less operating costs 10^{6} £ Net cash flow 10^{6} £ Cumulative cash flow 10^{6} £ (Project NFW) Discounted cash flow at 15 per cent 10^{6} £ Cumulative DCF (Project NPW) 10^{6} £ Project NPW at 25 per cent discount rate Project NPW at 35 per cent discount rate Project NPW at 37 per cent discount rate
1 0 _ _ 0 -1.0 -1.00 -0.87 -0.87 -0.80 -0.74 0.73
2 0 _ _ 0 -5.0 -6.00 -3.78 -4.65 -4.00 -3.48 -3.39
3 0 _ _ 0 -5.0 -11.00 -3.29 -7.94 -6.56 -5.52 -5.34
4 100 150 90 4.6 3.10 -7.90 1.77 -6.17 -5.29 -4.58 -4.46
5 105 150 90 4.85 4.85 -3.05 2.41 -4.03 -3.70 -3.5 -3.45
6 110 150 90 5.1 5.10 2.05 2.20 -1.83 -2.36 -2.66 -2.68
7 120 150 90 5.6 5.60 7.65 2.11 0.28 -1.19 -1.97 -2.06
8 130 150 90 6.1 6.10 13.75 1.99 2.27 -0.17 -1.42 -1.57
9 140 150 90 6.5 6.50 20.25 1.85 4.12 0.70 -0.98 -1.19
10 150 145 85 7 7.00 27.25 1.73 5.85 1.45 -0.64 -0.89
11 165 140 85 6.93 6.93 34.18 1.49 7.34 2.05 -0.38 -0.67
12 180 140 85 7.6 7.60 41.78 1.42 8.76 2.57 -0.17 -0.50
13 190 140 85 8.05 8.05 49.83 1.31 10.07 3.01 -0.01 -0.36
14 200 135 85 8.05 8.05 57.88 1.14 11.21 3.36 0.11 -0.27
15 190 130 75 7.62 7.62 65.50 0.94 12.15 3.63 0.19 -0.20
16 180 120 75 7.19 7.19 72.69 0.77 12.92 3.83 0.25 -0.15
17 170 115 70 5.06 5.06 77.75 0.47 13.39 3.95 0.28 -0.13
18 160 110 70 3.93 3.93 81.68 0.32 13.71 4.02 0.30 -0.12
19 150 100 70 2.15 2.15 83.83 0.15 13.86 4.05 0.31 -0.11

The fixed operating costs are estimated to be:

£400,000 per year up to year 9

£500,000 per year from year 9 to 13

£550,000 per year from year 13

The variable operating costs are estimated to be:

£10 per ton of product up to year 13

£13 per ton of product from year 13

Calculate:

1. The net cash flow in each year.

2. The future worth of the project, NFW.

3. The present worth, NPW, at a discount rate of 15 per cent.

4. The discounted cash-flow rate of return, DCFRR.

5. The pay-back time.

No account needs to be taken of tax in this exercise; or the scrap value of the equipment and value of the site at the end of the project life. For the discounting calculation, cash flows can be assumed to occur at the end of the year in which they actually occur.

The Blue Check Mark means that this solution has been answered and checked by an expert. This guarantees that the final answer is accurate.
Learn more on how we answer questions.

The cash-flow calculations are summarised in Table 6.8. Sample calculations to illustrate the methods used are given below.

For year 4

 

Investment (negative cash flow) =£ 1.5 \times 10^{6}

 

Sales income =100 \times 10^{3} \times 150 =£ 15.0 \times 10^{6}

 

\text { Raw material costs }=100 \times 10^{3} \times 90 =£ 9.0 \times 10^{6}

 

Fixed operating costs =£ 0.4 \times 10^{6}

 

\text { Variable operating costs }=100 \times 10^{3} \times 10 =£ 1.0 \times 10^{6}

 

\text { Net cash flow }=\text { sales income }-\text { costs }-\text { investment } =15.0-10.4-1.5=3.1 \text { million pounds }

 

Discounted cash flow (at 15 per cent) =\frac{3.1}{(1+0.15)^{4}}=£ 1.77 \times 10^{6}

 

For year 8

Investment nil

 

\text { Sales income }=130 \times 10^{3} \times 150 =£ 19.5 \times 10^{6}

 

\text { Raw material costs }=130 \times 10^{3} \times 90 =£ 11.7 \times 10^{6}

 

Fixed operating costs =£ 0.4 \times 10^{6}

 

\text { Variable operating costs }=130 \times 10^{3} \times 10 =£ 1.3 \times 10^{6}

 

\text { Net cash flow }=19.5-13.4=6.10 \text { million pounds }

 

DCF =\frac{6.1}{(1.15)^{8}}=1.99

 

DCFRR

This is found by trial-and-error calculations. The present worth has been calculated at discount rates of 25, 35 and 37 per cent. From the results shown in Table 6.8 it will be seen that the rate to give zero present worth will be around 36 per cent. This is the discounted cash-flow rate of return for the project.

Related Answered Questions