Production Airplanes is negotiating a contract for the production of 20 small jet aircraft. The initial jet required the equivalent of 400 days of direct labor. The learning percentage is 80 percent. Estimate the expected number of days of direct labor for
a. The 20th jet.
b. All 20 jets.
c. The average time for 20 jets.
Using Table 7S.1 with n = 20 and an 80 percent learning percentage, you find these factors: Unit time = 5.381; Total time = 10.485.
a. Expected time for 20th jet: 400(.381) = 152.4 labor days.
b. Expected total time for all 20: 400(10.485) = 4,194 labor days.
c. Average time for 20: 4,194 ÷ 20 = 209.7 labor days.
TABLE 7S.1 Learning curve coefficients
70% | 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% | ||||||
Unit Number |
Unit Time |
Total Time |
Unit Time |
Total Time |
Unit Time |
Total Time |
Unit Time |
Total Time |
Unit Time |
Total Time |
1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
2 | .700 | 1.700 | .750 | 1.750 | .800 | 1.800 | .850 | 1.850 | .900 | 1.900 |
3 | .568 | 2.268 | .634 | 2.384 | .702 | 2.502 | .773 | 2.623 | .846 | 2.746 |
4 | .490 | 2.758 | .562 | 2.946 | .640 | 3.142 | .723 | 3.345 | .810 | 3.556 |
5 | .437 | 3.195 | .513 | 3.459 | .596 | 3.738 | .686 | 4.031 | .783 | 4.339 |
6 | .398 | 3.593 | .475 | 3.934 | .561 | 4.299 | .657 | 4.688 | .762 | 5.101 |
7 | .367 | 3.960 | .446 | 4.380 | .534 | 4.834 | .634 | 5.322 | .744 | 5.845 |
8 | .343 | 4.303 | .422 | 4.802 | .512 | 5.346 | .614 | 5.936 | .729 | 6.574 |
9 | .323 | 4.626 | .402 | 5.204 | .493 | 5.839 | .597 | 6.533 | .716 | 7.290 |
10 | .306 | 4.932 | .385 | 5.589 | .477 | 6.315 | .583 | 7.116 | .705 | 7.994 |
11 | .291 | 5.223 | .370 | 5.958 | .462 | 6.777 | .570 | 7.686 | .695 | 8.689 |
12 | .278 | 5.501 | .357 | 6.315 | .449 | 7.227 | .558 | 8.244 | .685 | 9.374 |
13 | .267 | 5.769 | .345 | 6.660 | .438 | 7.665 | .548 | 8.792 | .677 | 10.052 |
14 | .257 | 6.026 | .334 | 6.994 | .428 | 8.092 | .539 | 9.331 | .670 | 10.721 |
15 | .248 | 6.274 | .325 | 7.319 | .418 | 8.511 | .530 | 9.861 | .663 | 11.384 |
16 | .240 | 6.514 | .316 | 7.635 | .410 | 8.920 | .522 | 10.383 | .656 | 12.040 |
17 | .233 | 6.747 | .309 | 7.944 | .402 | 9.322 | .515 | 10.898 | .650 | 12.690 |
18 | .226 | 6.973 | .301 | 8.245 | .394 | 9.716 | .508 | 11.405 | .644 | 13.334 |
19 | .220 | 7.192 | .295 | 8.540 | .388 | 10.104 | .501 | 11.907 | .639 | 13.974 |
20 | .214 | 7.407 | .288 | 8.828 | .381 | 10.485 | .495 | 12.402 | .634 | 14.608 |
21 | .209 | 7.615 | .283 | 9.111 | .375 | 10.860 | .490 | 12.892 | .630 | 15.237 |
22 | .204 | 7.819 | .277 | 9.388 | .370 | 11.230 | .484 | 13.376 | .625 | 15.862 |
23 | .199 | 8.018 | .272 | 9.660 | .364 | 11.594 | .479 | 13.856 | .621 | 16.483 |
24 | .195 | 8.213 | .267 | 9.928 | .359 | 11.954 | .475 | 14.331 | .617 | 17.100 |
25 | .191 | 8.404 | .263 | 10.191 | .355 | 12.309 | .470 | 14.801 | .613 | 17.713 |
26 | .187 | 8.591 | .259 | 10.449 | .350 | 12.659 | .466 | 15.267 | .609 | 18.323 |
27 | .183 | 8.774 | .255 | 10.704 | .346 | 13.005 | .462 | 15.728 | .606 | 18.929 |
28 | .180 | 8.954 | .251 | 10.955 | .342 | 13.347 | .458 | 16.186 | .603 | 19.531 |
29 | .177 | 9.131 | .247 | 11.202 | .338 | 13.685 | .454 | 16.640 | .599 | 20.131 |
30 | .174 | 9.305 | .244 | 11.446 | .335 | 14.020 | .450 | 17.091 | .596 | 20.727 |